Currently, Ukraine has harvested 26.08 million tonnes of corn from 3.44 million hectares, which is 84% of the planted area, yielding an average of 7.58 tonnes per hectare. For the 2023/24 marketing year, corn exports from Ukraine reached 6.18 million tonnes (compared to 9.6 million tonnes last year) out of the 12 million tonnes projected by the USDA, including 2.38 million tonnes exported in November.
Analysts anticipate that the USDA will adjust its corn export forecast for Ukraine in the upcoming December report and significantly increase the production forecast for the United States. This revision could lead to a price decline, especially considering the improved weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
On Friday, corn futures for December on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 1.4% to $184,4 per tonne (a decline of 1.9% for the month), while March futures increased by 1.2% to $191,4 per tonne, driven by a rise in export sales from the United States.
Export sales of corn from the U.S. from November 16 to 23 reached a record seasonal high of 1.93 million tons. Overall, in the 2023/24 marketing year, sales reached 24.5 million tonnes, which is 33% higher than last year.
According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the U.S. utilized 11.72 million tonnes of corn in October for ethanol production, the highest amount recorded since October 2017. For September and October combined, total usage reached 22.66 million tonnes, reflecting a 7.2% increase compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, ethanol prices in the U.S. fell from $0.47 to $0.43 per liter in November due to declining oil prices and reduced demand for fuel.
In Central Brazil, there has been constant, albeit light, precipitation that benefits the growth of soybeans and alleviates concerns about the timing of corn planting for the second crop and potential reductions in corn production.
The increase in sales of old-crop corn from Argentina in the coming year, alongside higher forecasts for the new crop (expected to be harvested in March), is likely to put significant pressure on corn prices in early 2024. This is particularly relevant given the increased supply from Ukraine and substantial unsold stocks in the United States.
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