Currently, Ukraine has harvested 26.08 mln tonnes of corn from 3.44 mln ha or 84% of the area, yielding 7.58 t/ha. In 2023/24 MY corn exports amounted to 6.18 mln tonnes (9.6 mln tonnes last year) out of 12 mln tonnes of corn forecasted by USDA, including 2.38 mln tonnes in November.
Analysts expect that in the December report, the USDA experts will change the forecast of corn exports for Ukraine and sharply increase the production forecast for the United States, which could lead to a drop in prices, especially given the improved weather in Brazil and Argentina.
on Friday on the Chicago stock exchange December corn futures rose 1.4% to 184,4 $/t (-1.9% for the month), and March - by 1.2% to 191,4 $/t amid increased export sales from the United States.
Export sales of corn from the U.S. for 16-23 November rose to a record season 1.93 million tons, and in General in 2023/24 MG reached 24.5 million tons, which is 33% higher than the corresponding figure last year.
According to NASS, in October, the US used 11.72 mln tonnes of corn for ethanol production, the highest since October 2017, and in total in September-October - 22.66 mln tonnes, up 7.2% compared to last year. At the same time, ethanol prices in the US in November decreased from $0.47 to $0.43/l amid falling oil prices and demand for fuel.
In Central Brazil, there is a constant, albeit light, precipitation, which contributes to the development of soybeans and reduce concerns about the timing of sowing corn second crop and a possible reduction in corn production.
The increase in sales of old crop corn from Argentina in the new year amid higher forecasts for the new crop (which will be harvested in March) will sharply increase pressure on quotations in early 2024, especially given the increase in supply from Ukraine and significant unsold stocks in the United States.
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